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Oscar Predictions

Expert Oscar predictions on who's going to walk home with a golden trophy.

Author: Jonathan Cohen

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It’s that time of year again; the Oscar nominations were just announced, and here’s some expert handicapping, courtesy of CelebSlap!

Best actor: So Will Smith was nominated for best actor, Mark Wahlberg for best supporting actor; am I the only one bummed out that Slick Rick didn’t even get offered a part in Pirates of the Caribbean 2?

Anyway, putting aside the fact that un-nominated Borat is the only performance anyone will still remember 20 years from now, this is a two way race between the actually as good as his accent Peter O’Toole and the angry linebacker from Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Even though it seems ridiculous that O’Toole has been nominated seven times without a win, expect that statistic to grow as Forest Whitaker gives the performance of a lifetime as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin.

Best Actress: With three English women and one Spaniard nominated you’d almost think it was a clerical error that a non European got nominated until you realize that this is Meryl Streep’s record 14th acting nomination. After seeing her convincingly play an orthodox MALE rabbi in 2003’s Angels in America they’ve seriously got retire her jersey- this just isn’t fair to the competition.

Track record aside however, the award is going to Helen Mirren for playing one of the few queens that’s also a monarch.

Best Supporting Actor: Every year there’s one category that’s jut plain silly, and this has got to be it. A formal child star gets nominated for playing a child molester? I’m openly routing against Kelly Leak, just because I want to see Tanner and Ogilvie bum rush the stage and recreate the classic sore loser ending from BNB.

With Haley Joel Osment… I mean Jackie Earle Haley out of the running; that leaves a two man race between Marky Mark and Gumby. While Gumby did some interesting character work with Pokey, offering a transvestite a ride home; in a movie of wicked thick accents and alpha male posturing, Mark Wahlberg was the last man standing in more ways than one. Cue Good Vibrations.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson is the runaway front runner and it’s not like she’s ever done poorly in competition before… still barring a last minute voting surge for the baby faced Diana DeGarmo, expect the Dreamgirl to take home the trophy.

Best Director: The truth is the Academy has been trying to give this to Marty Scorsese for the better part of the decade, but he keeps on screwing it up by making movies that are either mediocre (The Aviator) or just plain boring (Gangs of New York). While both Stephen Frears and Clint Eastwood have a chance on quality; I don’t think Frears has enough name recognition against the competition, and they can’t give it to Clint ever year.

Scorsese wins it in the biggest standing O of the night, but the moment will feel a little hollow because as wildly entertaining as The Departed was, it was nowhere near as good as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, or GoodFellas which he couldn’t log a win for.

Best Picture: This is one of those years where the front runner will only be apparent in hindsight. Actually, the front runner was Dreamgirls but it didn’t even get nominated; between this and American Idol, Jennifer Hudson is forming an Al Gore like ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Little Miss Sunshine can be crossed off as the annual happy just to be nominated quirky little indy that could. Letters From Iwo Jima is conceptually hilarious, Warner Brothers give Eastwood $75 million to make a war movie, and the small budget foreign language companion piece is the one that turns out to be a hit. Still I don’t see a movie in Japanese winning Best Picture. Likewise while I’ve heard good thinks about Babel, I just don’t understand babel.

Which leaves Tony Blair and The Departed; it’s a tough call but while I expect The Queen was a favorite among older Academy voters, The Departed was an all ages crowd pleaser. It’ll be Marty’s night all around, and while the Academy swears they don’t reveal this stuff ahead of time, expect some sort of schmaltzy tell, like Bobby De Niro coming out to announce Best Picture.

About Author

In addition to being a staff writer on Celeb Slap! Jonathan Cohen is also the author of a cell phone blog at http://www.thecellfreak.com ;for more of his celebrity news and gossip check out CelebSlap!

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